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Abstract The COVID‐19 pandemic was accompanied by social and economic changes previously associated with fertility delay and reduction, sparking widespread discussion of a “baby bust” in the United States. We examine fertility trends using restricted vital statistics data from California, a diverse population of 40 million, contributing 12 percent of U.S. births. Using time series models that account for longer‐run fertility trends, we observe modest, short‐term reductions in births from mid‐2020 through early 2021. Birth counts in subsequent months matched or even eased the pace of fertility decline since the 2008 recession and are unlikely a function of the pandemic alone. Responses to the pandemic were heterogeneous. Fertility declined markedly among the foreign‐born population, largely driven by changes in net migration. Among the U.S.‐born population, the short‐term pandemic‐attributable reductions were largest among older, highly educated people, suggesting mechanisms of fertility reduction disparately accessible to those with the most resources. We find no evidence of a strong population fertility response to the pandemic's accompanying employment shock, providing additional evidence of a growing divide between macroeconomic conditions and fertility patterns in the United States. 

ImportanceAbortion bans may lead to births among those who are unable to overcome barriers to abortion. The population-level effects of these policies, particularly their unequal impacts across subpopulations in the US, remain unclear. ObjectiveTo assess heterogeneity in the association of abortion bans with changes in fertility in the US, within and across states. Design, Setting, and ParticipantsDrawing from birth certificate and US Census Bureau data from 2012 through 2023 for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, this study used a bayesian panel data model to evaluate state-by-subgroup-specific changes in fertility associated with complete or 6-week abortion bans in 14 US states. The average percent and absolute change in the fertility rate among females aged 15 through 44 years was estimated overall and by state, and within and across states by age, race and ethnicity, marital status, education, and insurance payer. ExposureComplete or 6-week abortion ban. Main outcome and MeasuresFertility rate (births per 1000 reproductive-aged females) overall and by subgroups. ResultsThere were an estimated 1.01 (95% credible interval [CrI], 0.45-1.64) additional births above expectation per 1000 females aged 15 through 44 years (reproductive age) in states following adoption of abortion bans (60.55 observed vs 59.54 expected; 1.70% increase; 95% CrI, 0.75%-2.78%), equivalent to 22 180 excess births, with evidence of variation by state and subgroup. Estimated differences above expectation were largest for racially minoritized individuals (≈2.0%), unmarried individuals (1.79%), individuals younger than 35 years (≈2.0%), Medicaid beneficiaries (2.41%), and those without college degrees (high school diploma, 2.36%; some college, 1.58%), particularly in southern states. Differences in race and ethnicity and education across states explain most of the variability in the state-level association between abortion bans and fertility rates. Conclusion and RelevanceThese findings provide evidence that fertility rates in states with abortion bans were higher than would have been expected in the absence of these policies, with the largest estimated differences among subpopulations experiencing the greatest structural disadvantages and in states with among the worst maternal and child health and well-being outcomes.